Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel prize in economics in 2002 for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision making. His latest book is an important and disquieting read for those of us who have been in trades or professions where we felt so sure of the superiority and infallibility of our judgements. The book points out the terrifying consequences of not dealing with the "noise" in our decision making which is very different to the bias's that the likes of Kahneman and Malcolm Gladwell have been pointing out for decades. The book gives real world examples of noise in professions like the law and medicine where it literally undermines the credibility or fairness of what are commonly deemed to be infallible institutions. For companies it points to major losses on the bottom line of failing to deal with "noise" in decision making.
Noise is a fascinating read and provides important lessons for all of us from one of the giants of psychological thought in our time.
Publisher Reviews :
From the world-leaders in strategic thinking and the multi-million copy bestselling authors of Thinking Fast and Slow and Nudge, the next big book to change the way you think. Wherever there is human judgment, there is noise.
‘Noise may be the most important book I've read in more than a decade. A genuinely new idea so exceedingly important you will immediately put it into practice. A masterpiece' Angela Duckworth, author of Grit ‘
An absolutely brilliant investigation of a massive societal problem that has been hiding in plain sight' Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients – or that two judges in the same court give different sentences to people who have committed matching crimes. Now imagine that the same doctor and the same judge make different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday, or they haven't yet had lunch. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein show how noise produces errors in many fields, including in medicine, law, public health, economic forecasting, forensic science, child protection, creative strategy, performance review and hiring. And although noise can be found wherever people are making judgments and decisions, individuals and organizations alike commonly ignore its impact, at great cost. Packed with new ideas, and drawing on the same kind of sharp analysis and breadth of case study that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge international bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise and bias in decision-making. We all make bad judgments more than we think. With a few simple remedies, this groundbreaking book explores what we can do to make better ones. Review from Publisher